Ryan,
You're correct. Its not a network problem. I've narrowed down the problem a little further.
I used the mccli activity show command to get the job ID and I was able to get the log for that particular replication job and it shows an error.
<?xml version="1.0" ?><logdir ack="no" errdesc="Message intended for Client '3d5283a22aae03f208a285d614e44fddebce8278' received incorrectly at agent on <vdp hostname>:(none)(40b6934de29525a4c3259e7d81c6feb67c59b49d) currently registered to '127.0.0.1'" pidnum="1008" targetCid="" browsetimeout="10" maxelems="-1" file="MOD-1443819634808" supportbundle="false" sync="fg" cmd="getworklog" cid="3d5283a22aae03f208a285d614e44fddebce8278" errno="6207" showdebug="false" />
Not sure what it really means, but from what I can tell the VDP appliance isn't picking up its own replication job.